Elevated SARS-CoV-2 in peripheral blood and increased COVID-19 severity in American Indians/Alaska Natives.

Epidemiological data across the United States show health disparities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality by race/ethnicity. While the association between elevated SARS-CoV-2 viral loads (VLs) (i.e. upper respiratory tract (URT) and peripheral blood (PB)) and increased COVID-19 severity has been reported, data remain largely unavailable for some disproportionately impacted racial/ethnic groups, particularly for American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. As such, we determined the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 VL dynamics and disease severity in a diverse cohort of hospitalized patients. Results presented here are for study participants (n = 94, ages 21-88 years) enrolled in a prospective observational study between May and October 2020 who had SARS-CoV-2 viral clades 20A, C, and G. Based on self-reported race/ethnicity and sample size distribution, the cohort was stratified into two groups: (AI/AN, n = 43) and all other races/ethnicities combined (non-AI/AN, n = 51). SARS-CoV-2 VLs were quantified in the URT and PB on days 0-3, 6, 9, and 14. The strongest predictor of severe COVID-19 in the study population was the mean VL in PB (OR = 3.34; P = 2.00 × 10-4). The AI/AN group had the following: (1) comparable co-morbidities and admission laboratory values, yet more severe COVID-19 (OR = 4.81; P = 0.014); (2) a 2.1 longer duration of hospital stay (P = 0.023); and (3) higher initial and cumulative PB VLs during severe disease (P = 0.025). Moreover, self-reported race/ethnicity as AI/AN was the strongest predictor of elevated PB VLs (ß = 1.08; P = 6.00 × 10-4) and detection of SARS-CoV-2 in PB (hazard ratio = 3.58; P = 0.004). The findings presented here suggest a strong relationship between PB VL (magnitude and frequency) and severe COVID-19, particularly for the AI/AN group.

A Simple Clinical Prediction Tool for COVID-19 in Primary Care with Epidemiology: Temperature-Leukocytes-CT Results.

BACKGROUND Effective identification of patients with suspected COVID-19 is vital for the management. This study aimed to establish a simple clinical prediction model for COVID-19 in primary care. MATERIAL AND METHODS We consecutively enrolled 60 confirmed cases and 152 suspected cases with COVID-19 into the study. The training cohort consisted of 30 confirmed and 78 suspected cases, whereas the validation cohort consisted of 30 confirmed and 74 suspected cases. Four clinical variables - epidemiological history (E), body temperature (T), leukocytes count (L), and chest computed tomography (C) - were collected to construct a preliminary prediction model (model A). By integerizing coefficients of model A, a clinical prediction model (model B) was constructed. Finally, the scores of each variable in model B were summed up to build the ETLC score. RESULTS The preliminary prediction model A was Logit (YA)=2.657X1+1.153X2+2.125X3+2.828X4-10.771, while the model B was Logit (YB)=2.5X1+1X2+2X3+3X4-10. No significant difference was found between the area under the curve (AUC) of model A (0.920, 95% CI: 0.875-0.953) and model B (0.919, 95% CI: 0.874-0.952) (Z=0.035, P=0.972). When ETLC score was more than or equal to 9.5, the sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 was 76.7% (46/60) and 90.1% (137/152), respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 75.4% (46/61) and 90.7% (137/151), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The ETLC score is helpful for efficiently identifying patients with suspected COVID-19.